芯片|美论坛：中国如何适应米国新的芯片制裁？网友：这是黎明前的黑暗( 五 ) 美丽|米国|半导体|it芯片|重器

The writing was already on the wall when trump fired the first salvo at Huawei. The Chinese have responded at the highest level conducting a thorough ministry-led survey of the entire chipmaking chain mapping out a path towards completely indigenous production. China will be the first and only country to achieve self sufficiency in chip production within the next 5-10 years with competitive options at or near the cutting edge.
当特朗普向华为开第一枪时，这件事已经写在墙上了。中国人在最高层做出了回应，对整个芯片制造链进行了由部委主导的彻底调查，规划了一条完全本土生产的道路。中国将是第一个也是唯一一个在未来 5-10 年内实现芯片生产自给自足的国家，这是具有处于或接近前沿的竞争选择。

This is no different from what China has done with space rockets satellites atomic clocks nuclear reactors high speed rail jet engines and many other high tech products with huge barriers to entry including outright embargoes. The complete indigenization of complex technology is a Chinese specialty and China is insatiable because it is the size of 11 ravenous Japans and 27 koreas.
这与中国在太空火箭、卫星、原子钟、核反应堆、高速铁路、喷气发动机和许多其他高科技产品上所做的没有区别，这些高科技产品的进入壁垒巨大，包括完全的禁运。复杂技术的完全本土化是中国的专长，中国是雄心壮志的，因为它的面积相当于11个贪婪的日本和27个韩国那么大。
The chinese expected escalation especially after news of smic's delivery of 7nm product to a foreign customer. Sanctions on Huawei were similarly escalated until its handset business was decimated to hurt its revenue flow.
中国预计制裁会升级，尤其是在中芯国际向外国客户交付7nm产品的消息传出后。对华为的制裁也同样升级，直到其手机业务遭到重创，损害了其收入流。
In the short term the industry will once again reorder with dislocations appearing simultaneously as the order book and contracts are torn up just like the initial Huawei shock. This time the fallout will be greater because it won't just be one node but the entire Chinese market and its worldwide ecosystem.
短期内，行业将再次重新排序，订单和合同被撕毁的同时出现错位，就像最初的华为冲击一样。这一次，影响会更大，因为它不仅仅是一个节点，而是整个中国市场及其全球生态系统。
The Chinese are much better prepared this time though I worry for the future of Lenovo and Chinese Android handset makers which depend on the latest chips. They can lose their business overnight just like Huawei using the “military use” excuse. There are bandaid fixes but they will only come online in 2023/24. The foundries will be fine though because they have been expecting the storm.
中国人这次的准备要充分得多，不过我担心联想和依赖最新芯片的中国安卓手机制造商的未来。他们可能会在一夜之间失去生意，就像华为用“军事用途”的借口一样。有一些创可贴修复，但要到2023/24年才能上线。不过，铸造厂不会有什么问题，因为他们已经预料到了风暴的到来。
Having lived the last 4 years I don't put it beyond the Americans to press the kill switch on the android alliance or abet Samsung's and nokia’s rise at the expense of Chinese brands.
在过去4年的生活中，我不认为美丽国人在按下安卓联盟的关闭开关，或者以牺牲中国品牌为代价来唆使三星和诺基亚的崛起。
As for Baidu bytedance alibaba tencent and other heavy ai/Ml users they will have to move on to domestic ASIC for computing needs. The Americans may resort to constricting dram nand hard disk or interconnect supply to materially degrade their compute resources.
至于百度、字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯和其他大量人工智能/机器人使用者，他们将不得不转向国内专用集成电路来满足计算需求。美丽国人可能会通过限制dram、nand、硬盘或互连设备的供应来大幅降低他们的计算资源。